Enrolment projections - NSW federal redistribution

Updated: 24 April 2015

Projected enrolment quota

The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in New South Wales at the projection time by the number of members to which New South Wales is entitled
Number of Members of the House of Representatives to which New South Wales is entitled 47
Estimated total number of electors enrolled in New South Wales at the projection time (25 August 2019) 5 195 490
Average divisional enrolment at the projection time 110 542
Permissable maximum number of electors in a division at the projection time (Quota + 3.5%) 114 411
Permissable minimum number of electors in a division at the projection time (Quota - 3.5%) 106 673

Enrolment projections for NSW: by division, SA2 and SA1

Enrolment projections and enrolment as at 1 December 2014 for each division in New South Wales by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.

Please note that the division totals in these workbooks may differ from those previously published as part of the current enrolment quota information due to work being undertaken by the AEC to align with the Australian Statistical Geography Standard, which had not been finalised at the time enrolment numbers were extracted on 1 December 2014. It is important to note that the total enrolment for New South Wales as at 1 December 2014 remains unchanged, as does the current enrolment quota and calculations.

Appendix 1: New South Wales small area population projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing population and enrolment projections for all Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) in New South Wales, from June 2013 to June 2020.

Appendix 2: Projection methods for the New South Wales, Capital/Rest of State, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) – more details

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gives a more detailed breakdown of the four tiered process outlined in Appendix 1. The report outlines projection methods for New South Wales, Sydney/Rest of New South Wales, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s).

Appendix 3: Conversion of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Population Projections to Enrolment Projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used to calculate enrolment projections for each Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1).

Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls

There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:

  • divergence caused by differences in qualifications and disqualifications for enrolment and voting, and
  • divergence caused by differences in the process undertaken to enrol and maintain the currency of enrolment details.

Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.