No. 131 July 2007

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Published for the information of people interested in the Australian electoral process by the Australian Electoral Commission, PO Box 6172 Kingston ACT 2604. Phone 02 6271 4411 Fax 02 6271 4558

This edition of Electoral Newsfile includes the seat status for all electoral divisions as a result of the 2004 Federal Election. In addition, the Newsfile includes post-redistribution seat status for divisions in the territory and states which have undergone redistributions since the 2004 Federal Election.

Redistributions of electoral boundaries

Since the 2004 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Queensland.

The redistribution of electoral boundaries in the Australian Capital Territory was concluded in November 2005 without the need for a public enquiry and with minimum change.

The redistributions of electoral boundaries in New South Wales and Queensland were triggered in 2005 as a result of changes in population that led to changes in entitlement to representation. As a result of the redistribution process New South Wales is entitled to 49 divisions and Queensland is entitled to 29. In New South Wales changes have been made to the boundaries of all divisions

and the division of Gwydir has been abolished.

In Queensland changes to the boundaries of 26 existing divisions have been made and a new division named Flynn has been created in central Queensland.

Divisional and state maps of the new boundaries are available from the AEC. More detail on these redistributions is covered in Electoral Newsfiles number 126, 129 and 130.

Please note:In the pages following there are two tables for New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory. The first of the tables shows data from the 2004 federal election and the second contains post-redistribution data.

Notional seat status

Following the conclusion of the redistribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral divisions, ie which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 2004 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AEC’s computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in Queensland will be compared against estimated votes for the new divisions following the redistribution and not those votes obtained for the Queensland divisions at the 2004 election (or any subsequent by-election).

How is status defined?

Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences.

By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as ‘marginal’ (M); between 56-60% it is classified as ‘fairly safe’ (FS) and more than 60% is considered ‘safe’ (S).

How is the TPP calculated after a redistribution?

The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.

Election Results 2004 – NSW
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Banks	51.06	48.94	ALP	M	ALP
Barton	57.54	42.46	ALP	FS	ALP
Bennelong	45.67	54.33	LP	M	LP/NP
Berowra	37.84	62.16	LP	S	LP/NP
Blaxland	62.87	37.13	ALP	S	ALP
Bradfield	31.49	68.51	LP	S	LP/NP
Calare*	48.90	51.10	IND	M	LP/NP
Charlton	57.92	42.08	ALP	FS	ALP
Chifley	62.98	37.02	ALP	S	ALP
Cook	36.18	63.82	LP	S	LP/NP
Cowper	43.55	56.45	NP	FS	LP/NP
Cunningham	61.46	38.54	ALP	S	ALP
Dobell	44.10	55.90	LP	M	LP/NP
Eden-Monaro	47.86	52.14	LP	M	LP/NP
Farrer	30.18	69.82	LP	S	LP/NP
Fowler	71.36	28.64	ALP	S	ALP
Gilmore	39.92	60.08	LP	S	LP/NP
Grayndler	72.60	27.40	ALP	S	ALP
Greenway	49.42	50.58	LP	M	LP/NP
Gwydir	31.61	68.39	NP	S	LP/NP
Hughes	38.96	61.04	LP	S	LP/NP
Hume	35.87	64.13	LP	S	LP/NP
Hunter	63.75	36.25	ALP	S	ALP
Kingsford Smith	59.01	40.99	ALP	FS	ALP
Lindsay	44.74	55.26	LP	M	LP/NP
Lowe	53.30	46.70	ALP	M	ALP
Lyne	36.97	63.03	NP	S	LP/NP
Macarthur	40.49	59.51	LP	FS	LP/NP
Mackellar	34.25	65.75	LP	S	LP/NP
Macquarie	41.08	58.92	LP	FS	LP/NP
Mitchell	29.32	70.68	LP	S	LP/NP
New England*	36.79	63.21	IND	S	LP/NP
Newcastle	59.98	40.02	ALP	FS	ALP
North Sydney	39.97	60.03	LP	S	LP/NP
Page	45.77	54.23	NP	M	LP/NP
Parkes	35.60	64.40	NP	S	LP/NP
Parramatta	50.77	49.23	ALP	M	ALP
Paterson	43.03	56.97	LP	FS	LP/NP
Prospect	57.12	42.88	ALP	FS	ALP
Reid	62.77	37.23	ALP	S	ALP
Richmond	50.19	49.81	ALP	M	ALP
Riverina	29.34	70.66	NP	S	LP/NP
Robertson	43.19	56.81	LP	FS	LP/NP
Shortland	59.49	40.51	ALP	FS	ALP
Sydney	66.42	33.58	ALP	S	ALP
Throsby	65.00	35.00	ALP	S	ALP
Warringah	39.52	60.48	LP	S	LP/NP
Watson	65.14	34.86	ALP	S	ALP
Wentworth	44.52	55.48	LP	M	LP/NP
Werriwa	59.31	40.69	ALP	FS	ALP
Total	48.07	51.93

Post Redistribution 2006 – NSW
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Banks	53.22	46.78	ALP	M	ALP
Barton	57.57	42.43	ALP	FS	ALP
Bennelong	45.87	54.13	LP	M	LP/NP
Berowra	36.18	63.82	LP	S	LP/NP
Blaxland	65.23	34.77	ALP	S	ALP
Bradfield	32.45	67.55	LP	S	LP/NP
Calare*	38.59	61.41	IND	S	LP/NP
Charlton	58.40	41.60	ALP	FS	ALP
Chifley	61.97	38.03	ALP	S	ALP
Cook	36.72	63.28	LP	S	LP/NP
Cowper	43.25	56.75	NP	FS	LP/NP
Cunningham	61.62	38.38	ALP	S	ALP
Dobell	45.16	54.84	LP	M	LP/NP
Eden-Monaro	46.73	53.27	LP	M	LP/NP
Farrer	33.37	66.63	LP	S	LP/NP
Fowler	63.32	36.68	ALP	S	ALP
Gilmore	40.59	59.41	LP	FS	LP/NP
Grayndler	71.19	28.81	ALP	S	ALP
Greenway	38.65	61.35	LP	S	LP/NP
Gwydir	Abolished
Hughes	41.45	58.55	LP	FS	LP/NP
Hume	37.16	62.84	LP	S	LP/NP
Hunter	61.09	38.91	ALP	S	ALP
Kingsford Smith	58.73	41.27	ALP	FS	ALP
Lindsay	47.08	52.92	LP	M	LP/NP
Lowe	53.03	46.97	ALP	M	ALP
Lyne	36.59	63.41	NP	S	LP/NP
Macarthur	38.85	61.15	LP	S	LP/NP
Mackellar	34.54	65.46	LP	S	LP/NP
Macquarie #	50.47	49.53	LP	M	ALP
Mitchell	29.32	70.68	LP	S	LP/NP
New England*	36.41	63.59	IND	S	LP/NP
Newcastle	59.09	40.91	ALP	FS	ALP
North Sydney	39.96	60.04	LP	S	LP/NP
Page	44.54	55.46	NP	M	LP/NP
Parkes	32.44	67.56	NP	S	LP/NP
Parramatta #	49.17	50.83	ALP	M	LP/NP
Paterson	43.68	56.32	LP	FS	LP/NP
Prospect	56.40	43.60	ALP	FS	ALP
Reid	62.08	37.92	ALP	S	ALP
Richmond	51.44	48.56	ALP	M	ALP
Riverina	29.15	70.85	NP	S	LP/NP
Robertson	43.13	56.87	LP	FS	LP/NP
Shortland	59.24	40.76	ALP	FS	ALP
Sydney	67.38	32.62	ALP	S	ALP
Throsby	63.82	36.18	ALP	S	ALP
Warringah	38.71	61.29	LP	S	LP/NP
Watson	64.56	35.44	ALP	S	ALP
Wentworth	47.49	52.51	LP	M	LP/NP
Werriwa	56.94	43.06	ALP	FS	ALP
Total	48.07	51.93

^# These divisions, post 2006 redistributions, whose notional seat status indicates a change from one party to another

Election Results 2004 – VIC
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Aston	36.85	63.15	LP	S	LP/NP
Ballarat	52.23	47.77	ALP	M	ALP
Batman	71.32	28.68	ALP	S	ALP
Bendigo	50.96	49.04	ALP	M	ALP
Bruce	53.48	46.52	ALP	M	ALP
Calwell	58.19	41.81	ALP	FS	ALP
Casey	38.65	61.35	LP	S	LP/NP
Chisholm	52.65	47.35	ALP	M	ALP
Corangamite	44.68	55.32	LP	M	LP/NP
Corio	55.64	44.36	ALP	M	ALP
Deakin	45.03	54.97	LP	M	LP/NP
Dunkley	40.62	59.38	LP	FS	LP/NP
Flinders	38.89	61.11	LP	S	LP/NP
Gellibrand	64.95	35.05	ALP	S	ALP
Gippsland	42.30	57.70	NP	FS	LP/NP
Goldstein	39.97	60.03	LP	S	LP/NP
Gorton	64.90	35.10	ALP	S	ALP
Higgins	41.24	58.76	LP	FS	LP/NP
Holt	51.51	48.49	ALP	M	ALP
Hotham	57.40	42.60	ALP	FS	ALP
Indi	33.71	66.29	LP	S	LP/NP
Isaacs	51.48	48.52	ALP	M	ALP
Jagajaga	54.40	45.60	ALP	M	ALP
Kooyong	40.42	59.58	LP	FS	LP/NP
La Trobe	44.17	55.83	LP	M	LP/NP
Lalor	58.79	41.21	ALP	FS	ALP
Mallee	25.25	74.75	NP	S	LP/NP
Maribyrnong	59.47	40.53	ALP	FS	ALP
McEwen	43.58	56.42	LP	FS	LP/NP
McMillan	45.01	54.99	LP	M	LP/NP
Melbourne	71.14	28.86	ALP	S	ALP
Melbourne Ports	53.74	46.26	ALP	M	ALP
Menzies	39.33	60.67	LP	S	LP/NP
Murray	25.92	74.08	LP	S	LP/NP
Scullin	64.79	35.21	ALP	S	ALP
Wannon	37.63	62.37	LP	S	LP/NP
Wills	66.90	33.10	ALP	S	ALP
Total	49.00	51.00

Election Results 2004 – QLD
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Blair	38.79	61.21	LP	S	LP/NP
Bonner	49.49	50.51	LP	M	LP/NP
Bowman	40.88	59.12	LP	FS	LP/NP
Brisbane	53.90	46.10	ALP	M	ALP
Capricornia	55.14	44.86	ALP	M	ALP
Dawson	39.62	60.38	NP	S	LP/NP
Dickson	42.17	57.83	LP	FS	LP/NP
Fadden	34.72	65.28	LP	S	LP/NP
Fairfax	39.17	60.83	LP	S	LP/NP
Fisher	37.02	62.98	LP	S	LP/NP
Forde	37.02	62.98	LP	S	LP/NP
Griffith	58.63	41.37	ALP	FS	ALP
Groom	31.05	68.95	LP	S	LP/NP
Herbert	43.80	56.20	LP	FS	LP/NP
Hinkler	45.19	54.81	NP	M	LP/NP
Kennedy*	41.05	58.95	IND	FS	LP/NP
Leichhardt	40.00	60.00	LP	FS	LP/NP
Lilley	55.27	44.73	ALP	M	ALP
Longman	42.34	57.66	LP	FS	LP/NP
Maranoa	29.07	70.93	NP	S	LP/NP
McPherson	36.11	63.89	LP	S	LP/NP
Moncrieff	29.86	70.14	LP	S	LP/NP
Moreton	45.83	54.17	LP	M	LP/NP
Oxley	59.72	40.28	ALP	FS	ALP
Petrie	42.08	57.92	LP	FS	LP/NP
Rankin	53.23	46.77	ALP	M	ALP
Ryan	39.58	60.42	LP	S	LP/NP
Wide Bay	37.11	62.89	NP	S	LP/NP
Total	42.91	57.09

Post Redistribution 2006 – QLD
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Blair	44.31	55.69	LP	M	LP/NP
Bonner	49.49	50.51	LP	M	LP/NP
Bowman	41.10	58.90	LP	FS	LP/NP
Brisbane	53.94	46.06	ALP	M	ALP
Capricornia	54.01	45.99	ALP	M	ALP
Dawson	40.01	59.99	NP	FS	LP/NP
Dickson	41.11	58.89	LP	FS	LP/NP
Fadden	34.10	65.90	LP	S	LP/NP
Fairfax	37.59	62.41	LP	S	LP/NP
Fisher	39.02	60.98	LP	S	LP/NP
Flynn	42.28	57.72	New Division	FS	LP/NP
Forde	38.48	61.52	LP	S	LP/NP
Griffith	58.48	41.52	ALP	FS	ALP
Groom	31.19	68.81	LP	S	LP/NP
Herbert	43.76	56.24	LP	FS	LP/NP
Hinkler	41.66	58.34	NP	FS	LP/NP
Kennedy*	41.14	58.86	IND	FS	LP/NP
Leichhardt	39.74	60.26	LP	S	LP/NP
Lilley	55.40	44.60	ALP	M	ALP
Longman	43.25	56.75	LP	FS	LP/NP
Maranoa	28.95	71.05	NP	S	LP/NP
McPherson	36.06	63.94	LP	S	LP/NP
Moncrieff	30.47	69.53	LP	S	LP/NP
Moreton	47.17	52.83	LP	M	LP/NP
Oxley	57.12	42.88	ALP	FS	ALP
Petrie	42.55	57.45	LP	FS	LP/NP
Rankin	52.98	47.02	ALP	M	ALP
Ryan	39.58	60.42	LP	S	LP/NP
Wide Bay	37.79	62.21	NP	S	LP/NP
Total	42.91	57.09

Election Results 2004 – WA
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Brand	54.65	45.35	ALP	M	ALP
Canning	40.46	59.54	LP	FS	LP/NP
Cowan	50.78	49.22	ALP	M	ALP
Curtin	35.38	64.62	LP	S	LP/NP
Forrest	39.55	60.45	LP	S	LP/NP
Fremantle	57.76	42.24	ALP	FS	ALP
Hasluck	48.18	51.82	LP	M	LP/NP
Kalgoorlie	43.70	56.30	LP	FS	LP/NP
Moore	39.17	60.83	LP	S	LP/NP
O’Connor	29.61	70.39	LP	S	LP/NP
Pearce	37.06	62.94	LP	S	LP/NP
Perth	56.73	43.27	ALP	FS	ALP
Stirling	47.96	52.04	LP	M	LP/NP
Swan	50.08	49.92	ALP	M	ALP
Tangney	38.25	61.75	LP	S	LP/NP
Total	44.60	55.40

Election Results 2004 – SA
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Adelaide	51.33	48.67	ALP	M	ALP
Barker	30.12	69.88	LP	S	LP/NP
Boothby	44.63	55.37	LP	M	LP/NP
Grey	36.18	63.82	LP	S	LP/NP
Hindmarsh	50.06	49.94	ALP	M	ALP
Kingston	49.93	50.07	LP	M	LP/NP
Makin	49.07	50.93	LP	M	LP/NP
Mayo*	36.41	63.59	LP	S	LP/NP
Port Adelaide	62.91	37.09	ALP	S	ALP
Sturt	43.20	56.80	LP	FS	LP/NP
Wakefield	49.33	50.67	LP	M	LP/NP
Total	45.64	54.36

Election Results 2004 – TAS
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Bass	47.37	52.63	LP	M	LP/NP
Braddon	48.87	51.13	LP	M	LP/NP
Denison	63.29	36.71	ALP	S	ALP
Franklin	57.59	42.41	ALP	FS	ALP
Lyons	53.68	46.32	ALP	M	ALP
Total	54.19	45.81

Election Results 2004 – ACT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Canberra	59.62	40.38	ALP	FS	ALP
Fraser	63.33	36.67	ALP	S	ALP
Total	61.54	38.46

Post Redistribution 2005 – ACT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Canberra	59.91	40.09	ALP	FS	ALP
Fraser	63.32	36.68	ALP	S	ALP
Total	61.54	38.46

Election Results 2004 – NT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe

Division Name	ALP (%)	LP/NP (%)	Elected 2004	Status	TPP (two-party preferred)
Lingiari	57.66	42.34	ALP	FS	ALP
Solomon	47.19	52.81	CLP	M	LP/NP
Total	52.15	47.85

Explanatory Note
1. TPP (two-party-preferred) is usually the same as TCP (two-candidate-preferred), however they are different when the final two candidates are not ALP and Coalition candidates. This is referred to as ‘non-classic’ TCP. 2. At the 2004 election in the divisions of Calare, Kennedy, New England and Mayo the final two candidates were not from the ALP and the Coalition. In these divisions, a further scrutiny for information was conducted to show the result of the count indicating the next available preference to the ALP and the leading Coalition party candidates for statistical purposes. For those divisions where the two-candidate-preferred (TCP) count was not between ALP and LP/NP the following TCP results are:

Calare	NSW	Ind: 78.26	LP: 21.74	Redistribution 2006	Safe Independent
New England	NSW	Ind: 71 38	NP: 28.62	Redistribution 2006	Safe Independent
Kennedy	QLD	Ind: 68.83	ALP: 31.17	Redistribution 2006	Safe Independent
Mayo	SA	Ind: 38.19	LP: 61.81	Election 2004	Safe LP/NP

Australian Electoral Commission Contacts

Media Liaison

Members of the media are asked to use the Media Liaison and State Office contact numbers listed rather than the general enquiry number 13 23 26 which appears on AEC advertising.

Director Media and Communication Strategy Section
Phil Diak
(02) 6271 4415

Assistant Director Media and Communication Strategy Section
Bernadette O’Meara
(02) 6271 4724

Editor, Electoral Newsfile Cate Thompson
(02) 6271 4583

State/Territory Offices

The administration of a federal election in each state and territory is under the control of the Australian Electoral Officer/State Manager (AEO/ State Manager) for that state or territory. An AEO/State Manager for the ACT is temporarily appointed for each election.

AEO/State Managers may be contacted on the following numbers:

New South Wales
Tom Rogers
Ph: (02) 9375 6319
Fx: (02) 9281 9384

Victoria
Daryl Wight
Ph: (03) 9285 7100
Fx: (03) 9285 7178

Queensland
Anne Bright
Ph: (07) 3834 3440
Fx: (07)3831 7223

Western Australia
Jennie Gzik
Ph: (08) 6363 8080
Fx: (08) 6363 8016

South Australia
Dr Chris Drury
Ph: (08) 8237 6540
Fx: (08) 8231 2664

Tasmania
Marie Neilson
Ph: (03) 6235 0500
Fx: (03) 6234 4268

Northern Territory
Iain Loganathan
Ph: (08) 8982 8000
Fx: (08) 8981 4725