Electoral Newsfile No 131 - National Seat Status – including notional seat status for the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Queensland

Updated: 7 February 2011

No. 131 July 2007

Published for the information of people interested in the Australian electoral process by the Australian Electoral Commission, PO Box 6172 Kingston ACT 2604. Phone 02 6271 4411 Fax 02 6271 4558

This edition of Electoral Newsfile includes the seat status for all electoral divisions as a result of the 2004 Federal Election. In addition, the Newsfile includes post-redistribution seat status for divisions in the territory and states which have undergone redistributions since the 2004 Federal Election.

Redistributions of electoral boundaries

Since the 2004 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Queensland.

The redistribution of electoral boundaries in the Australian Capital Territory was concluded in November 2005 without the need for a public enquiry and with minimum change.

The redistributions of electoral boundaries in New South Wales and Queensland were triggered in 2005 as a result of changes in population that led to changes in entitlement to representation. As a result of the redistribution process New South Wales is entitled to 49 divisions and Queensland is entitled to 29. In New South Wales changes have been made to the boundaries of all divisions

and the division of Gwydir has been abolished.

In Queensland changes to the boundaries of 26 existing divisions have been made and a new division named Flynn has been created in central Queensland.

Divisional and state maps of the new boundaries are available from the AEC. More detail on these redistributions is covered in Electoral Newsfile numbers 126, 129 and 130.

Please note: below there are two tables for New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory. The first of the tables shows data from the 2004 federal election and the second contains post-redistribution data.

Notional seat status

Following the conclusion of the redistribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral divisions, i.e. which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 2004 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AEC's computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in Queensland will be compared against estimated votes for the new divisions following the redistribution and not those votes obtained for the Queensland divisions at the 2004 election (or any subsequent by-election).

How is status defined?

Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences.

By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as 'marginal' (M); between 56–60% it is classified as 'fairly safe' (FS) and more than 60% is considered 'safe' (S).

How is the TPP calculated after a redistribution?

The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.

Election Results 2004 – NSW
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Banks 51.06 48.94 ALP M ALP
Barton 57.54 42.46 ALP FS ALP
Bennelong 45.67 54.33 LP M LP/NP
Berowra 37.84 62.16 LP S LP/NP
Blaxland 62.87 37.13 ALP S ALP
Bradfield 31.49 68.51 LP S LP/NP
Calare* 48.90 51.10 IND M LP/NP
Charlton 57.92 42.08 ALP FS ALP
Chifley 62.98 37.02 ALP S ALP
Cook 36.18 63.82 LP S LP/NP
Cowper 43.55 56.45 NP FS LP/NP
Cunningham 61.46 38.54 ALP S ALP
Dobell 44.10 55.90 LP M LP/NP
Eden-Monaro 47.86 52.14 LP M LP/NP
Farrer 30.18 69.82 LP S LP/NP
Fowler 71.36 28.64 ALP S ALP
Gilmore 39.92 60.08 LP S LP/NP
Grayndler 72.60 27.40 ALP S ALP
Greenway 49.42 50.58 LP M LP/NP
Gwydir 31.61 68.39 NP S LP/NP
Hughes 38.96 61.04 LP S LP/NP
Hume 35.87 64.13 LP S LP/NP
Hunter 63.75 36.25 ALP S ALP
Kingsford Smith 59.01 40.99 ALP FS ALP
Lindsay 44.74 55.26 LP M LP/NP
Lowe 53.30 46.70 ALP M ALP
Lyne 36.97 63.03 NP S LP/NP
Macarthur 40.49 59.51 LP FS LP/NP
Mackellar 34.25 65.75 LP S LP/NP
Macquarie 41.08 58.92 LP FS LP/NP
Mitchell 29.32 70.68 LP S LP/NP
New England* 36.79 63.21 IND S LP/NP
Newcastle 59.98 40.02 ALP FS ALP
North Sydney 39.97 60.03 LP S LP/NP
Page 45.77 54.23 NP M LP/NP
Parkes 35.60 64.40 NP S LP/NP
Parramatta 50.77 49.23 ALP M ALP
Paterson 43.03 56.97 LP FS LP/NP
Prospect 57.12 42.88 ALP FS ALP
Reid 62.77 37.23 ALP S ALP
Richmond 50.19 49.81 ALP M ALP
Riverina 29.34 70.66 NP S LP/NP
Robertson 43.19 56.81 LP FS LP/NP
Shortland 59.49 40.51 ALP FS ALP
Sydney 66.42 33.58 ALP S ALP
Throsby 65.00 35.00 ALP S ALP
Warringah 39.52 60.48 LP S LP/NP
Watson 65.14 34.86 ALP S ALP
Wentworth 44.52 55.48 LP M LP/NP
Werriwa 59.31 40.69 ALP FS ALP
Total 48.07 51.93      
Post Redistribution 2006 – NSW
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Banks 53.22 46.78 ALP M ALP
Barton 57.57 42.43 ALP FS ALP
Bennelong 45.87 54.13 LP M LP/NP
Berowra 36.18 63.82 LP S LP/NP
Blaxland 65.23 34.77 ALP S ALP
Bradfield 32.45 67.55 LP S LP/NP
Calare* 38.59 61.41 IND S LP/NP
Charlton 58.40 41.60 ALP FS ALP
Chifley 61.97 38.03 ALP S ALP
Cook 36.72 63.28 LP S LP/NP
Cowper 43.25 56.75 NP FS LP/NP
Cunningham 61.62 38.38 ALP S ALP
Dobell 45.16 54.84 LP M LP/NP
Eden-Monaro 46.73 53.27 LP M LP/NP
Farrer 33.37 66.63 LP S LP/NP
Fowler 63.32 36.68 ALP S ALP
Gilmore 40.59 59.41 LP FS LP/NP
Grayndler 71.19 28.81 ALP S ALP
Greenway 38.65 61.35 LP S LP/NP
Gwydir Abolished
Hughes 41.45 58.55 LP FS LP/NP
Hume 37.16 62.84 LP S LP/NP
Hunter 61.09 38.91 ALP S ALP
Kingsford Smith 58.73 41.27 ALP FS ALP
Lindsay 47.08 52.92 LP M LP/NP
Lowe 53.03 46.97 ALP M ALP
Lyne 36.59 63.41 NP S LP/NP
Macarthur 38.85 61.15 LP S LP/NP
Mackellar 34.54 65.46 LP S LP/NP
Macquarie # 50.47 49.53 LP M ALP
Mitchell 29.32 70.68 LP S LP/NP
New England* 36.41 63.59 IND S LP/NP
Newcastle 59.09 40.91 ALP FS ALP
North Sydney 39.96 60.04 LP S LP/NP
Page 44.54 55.46 NP M LP/NP
Parkes 32.44 67.56 NP S LP/NP
Parramatta # 49.17 50.83 ALP M LP/NP
Paterson 43.68 56.32 LP FS LP/NP
Prospect 56.40 43.60 ALP FS ALP
Reid 62.08 37.92 ALP S ALP
Richmond 51.44 48.56 ALP M ALP
Riverina 29.15 70.85 NP S LP/NP
Robertson 43.13 56.87 LP FS LP/NP
Shortland 59.24 40.76 ALP FS ALP
Sydney 67.38 32.62 ALP S ALP
Throsby 63.82 36.18 ALP S ALP
Warringah 38.71 61.29 LP S LP/NP
Watson 64.56 35.44 ALP S ALP
Wentworth 47.49 52.51 LP M LP/NP
Werriwa 56.94 43.06 ALP FS ALP
Total 48.07 51.93      

# These divisions, post 2006 redistributions, whose notional seat status indicates a change from one party to another

Election Results 2004 – VIC
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Aston 36.85 63.15 LP S LP/NP
Ballarat 52.23 47.77 ALP M ALP
Batman 71.32 28.68 ALP S ALP
Bendigo 50.96 49.04 ALP M ALP
Bruce 53.48 46.52 ALP M ALP
Calwell 58.19 41.81 ALP FS ALP
Casey 38.65 61.35 LP S LP/NP
Chisholm 52.65 47.35 ALP M ALP
Corangamite 44.68 55.32 LP M LP/NP
Corio 55.64 44.36 ALP M ALP
Deakin 45.03 54.97 LP M LP/NP
Dunkley 40.62 59.38 LP FS LP/NP
Flinders 38.89 61.11 LP S LP/NP
Gellibrand 64.95 35.05 ALP S ALP
Gippsland 42.30 57.70 NP FS LP/NP
Goldstein 39.97 60.03 LP S LP/NP
Gorton 64.90 35.10 ALP S ALP
Higgins 41.24 58.76 LP FS LP/NP
Holt 51.51 48.49 ALP M ALP
Hotham 57.40 42.60 ALP FS ALP
Indi 33.71 66.29 LP S LP/NP
Isaacs 51.48 48.52 ALP M ALP
Jagajaga 54.40 45.60 ALP M ALP
Kooyong 40.42 59.58 LP FS LP/NP
La Trobe 44.17 55.83 LP M LP/NP
Lalor 58.79 41.21 ALP FS ALP
Mallee 25.25 74.75 NP S LP/NP
Maribyrnong 59.47 40.53 ALP FS ALP
McEwen 43.58 56.42 LP FS LP/NP
McMillan 45.01 54.99 LP M LP/NP
Melbourne 71.14 28.86 ALP S ALP
Melbourne Ports 53.74 46.26 ALP M ALP
Menzies 39.33 60.67 LP S LP/NP
Murray 25.92 74.08 LP S LP/NP
Scullin 64.79 35.21 ALP S ALP
Wannon 37.63 62.37 LP S LP/NP
Wills 66.90 33.10 ALP S ALP
Total 49.00 51.00      
Election Results 2004 – QLD
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Blair 38.79 61.21 LP S LP/NP
Bonner 49.49 50.51 LP M LP/NP
Bowman 40.88 59.12 LP FS LP/NP
Brisbane 53.90 46.10 ALP M ALP
Capricornia 55.14 44.86 ALP M ALP
Dawson 39.62 60.38 NP S LP/NP
Dickson 42.17 57.83 LP FS LP/NP
Fadden 34.72 65.28 LP S LP/NP
Fairfax 39.17 60.83 LP S LP/NP
Fisher 37.02 62.98 LP S LP/NP
Forde 37.02 62.98 LP S LP/NP
Griffith 58.63 41.37 ALP FS ALP
Groom 31.05 68.95 LP S LP/NP
Herbert 43.80 56.20 LP FS LP/NP
Hinkler 45.19 54.81 NP M LP/NP
Kennedy* 41.05 58.95 IND FS LP/NP
Leichhardt 40.00 60.00 LP FS LP/NP
Lilley 55.27 44.73 ALP M ALP
Longman 42.34 57.66 LP FS LP/NP
Maranoa 29.07 70.93 NP S LP/NP
McPherson 36.11 63.89 LP S LP/NP
Moncrieff 29.86 70.14 LP S LP/NP
Moreton 45.83 54.17 LP M LP/NP
Oxley 59.72 40.28 ALP FS ALP
Petrie 42.08 57.92 LP FS LP/NP
Rankin 53.23 46.77 ALP M ALP
Ryan 39.58 60.42 LP S LP/NP
Wide Bay 37.11 62.89 NP S LP/NP
Total 42.91 57.09      
Post Redistribution 2006 – QLD
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Blair 44.31 55.69 LP M LP/NP
Bonner 49.49 50.51 LP M LP/NP
Bowman 41.10 58.90 LP FS LP/NP
Brisbane 53.94 46.06 ALP M ALP
Capricornia 54.01 45.99 ALP M ALP
Dawson 40.01 59.99 NP FS LP/NP
Dickson 41.11 58.89 LP FS LP/NP
Fadden 34.10 65.90 LP S LP/NP
Fairfax 37.59 62.41 LP S LP/NP
Fisher 39.02 60.98 LP S LP/NP
Flynn 42.28 57.72 New Division FS LP/NP
Forde 38.48 61.52 LP S LP/NP
Griffith 58.48 41.52 ALP FS ALP
Groom 31.19 68.81 LP S LP/NP
Herbert 43.76 56.24 LP FS LP/NP
Hinkler 41.66 58.34 NP FS LP/NP
Kennedy* 41.14 58.86 IND FS LP/NP
Leichhardt 39.74 60.26 LP S LP/NP
Lilley 55.40 44.60 ALP M ALP
Longman 43.25 56.75 LP FS LP/NP
Maranoa 28.95 71.05 NP S LP/NP
McPherson 36.06 63.94 LP S LP/NP
Moncrieff 30.47 69.53 LP S LP/NP
Moreton 47.17 52.83 LP M LP/NP
Oxley 57.12 42.88 ALP FS ALP
Petrie 42.55 57.45 LP FS LP/NP
Rankin 52.98 47.02 ALP M ALP
Ryan 39.58 60.42 LP S LP/NP
Wide Bay 37.79 62.21 NP S LP/NP
Total 42.91 57.09      
Election Results 2004 – WA
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Brand 54.65 45.35 ALP M ALP
Canning 40.46 59.54 LP FS LP/NP
Cowan 50.78 49.22 ALP M ALP
Curtin 35.38 64.62 LP S LP/NP
Forrest 39.55 60.45 LP S LP/NP
Fremantle 57.76 42.24 ALP FS ALP
Hasluck 48.18 51.82 LP M LP/NP
Kalgoorlie 43.70 56.30 LP FS LP/NP
Moore 39.17 60.83 LP S LP/NP
O'Connor 29.61 70.39 LP S LP/NP
Pearce 37.06 62.94 LP S LP/NP
Perth 56.73 43.27 ALP FS ALP
Stirling 47.96 52.04 LP M LP/NP
Swan 50.08 49.92 ALP M ALP
Tangney 38.25 61.75 LP S LP/NP
Total 44.60 55.40      
Election Results 2004 – SA
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Adelaide 51.33 48.67 ALP M ALP
Barker 30.12 69.88 LP S LP/NP
Boothby 44.63 55.37 LP M LP/NP
Grey 36.18 63.82 LP S LP/NP
Hindmarsh 50.06 49.94 ALP M ALP
Kingston 49.93 50.07 LP M LP/NP
Makin 49.07 50.93 LP M LP/NP
Mayo* 36.41 63.59 LP S LP/NP
Port Adelaide 62.91 37.09 ALP S ALP
Sturt 43.20 56.80 LP FS LP/NP
Wakefield 49.33 50.67 LP M LP/NP
Total 45.64 54.36      
Election Results 2004 – TAS
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Bass 47.37 52.63 LP M LP/NP
Braddon 48.87 51.13 LP M LP/NP
Denison 63.29 36.71 ALP S ALP
Franklin 57.59 42.41 ALP FS ALP
Lyons 53.68 46.32 ALP M ALP
Total 54.19 45.81      
Election Results 2004 – ACT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Canberra 59.62 40.38 ALP FS ALP
Fraser 63.33 36.67 ALP S ALP
Total 61.54 38.46      
Post Redistribution 2005 – ACT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Canberra 59.91 40.09 ALP FS ALP
Fraser 63.32 36.68 ALP S ALP
Total 61.54 38.46      
Election Results 2004 – NT
M = Marginal
FS = Fairly Safe
S = Safe
Division Name ALP (%) LP/NP (%) Elected 2004 Status TPP (two-party preferred)
Lingiari 57.66 42.34 ALP FS ALP
Solomon 47.19 52.81 CLP M LP/NP
Total 52.15 47.85      
Explanatory Note
1. TPP (two-party-preferred) is usually the same as TCP (two-candidate-preferred), however they are different when the final two candidates are not ALP and Coalition candidates. This is referred to as 'non-classic' TCP.
2. At the 2004 election in the divisions of Calare, Kennedy, New England and Mayo the final two candidates were not from the ALP and the Coalition. In these divisions, a further scrutiny for information was conducted to show the result of the count indicating the next available preference to the ALP and the leading Coalition party candidates for statistical purposes.
For those divisions where the two-candidate-preferred (TCP) count was not between ALP and LP/NP the following TCP results are:
Calare NSW Ind: 78.26 LP: 21.74 Redistribution 2006 Safe Independent
New England NSW Ind: 71 38 NP: 28.62 Redistribution 2006 Safe Independent
Kennedy QLD Ind: 68.83 ALP: 31.17 Redistribution 2006 Safe Independent
Mayo SA Ind: 38.19 LP: 61.81 Election 2004 Safe LP/NP

Australian Electoral Commission Contacts

Media Liaison

Members of the media are asked to use the Media Liaison and State Office contact numbers listed rather than the general enquiry number 13 23 26 which appears on AEC advertising.

Director Media and Communication Strategy Section
Phil Diak
(02) 6271 4415

Assistant Director Media and Communication Strategy Section
Bernadette O'Meara
(02) 6271 4724

Editor, Electoral Newsfile
Cate Thompson
(02) 6271 4583

State/Territory Offices

The administration of a federal election in each state and territory is under the control of the Australian Electoral Officer/State Manager (AEO/State Manager) for that state or territory. An AEO/State Manager for the ACT is temporarily appointed for each election.

AEO/State Managers may be contacted on the following numbers:

New South Wales
Tom Rogers
Ph: (02) 9375 6319
Fx: (02) 9281 9384

Victoria
Daryl Wight
Ph: (03) 9285 7100
Fx: (03) 9285 7178

Queensland
Anne Bright
Ph: (07) 3834 3440
Fx: (07)3831 7223

Western Australia
Jennie Gzik
Ph: (08) 6363 8080
Fx: (08) 6363 8016

South Australia
Dr Chris Drury
Ph: (08) 8237 6540
Fx: (08) 8231 2664

Tasmania
Marie Neilson
Ph: (03) 6235 0500
Fx: (03) 6234 4268

Northern Territory
Iain Loganathan
Ph: (08) 8982 8000
Fx: (08) 8981 4725