Electoral Newsfile 114: 2004 Seat Status Including Notional Seat Status for Vic, Qld and SA

Updated: 7 February 2011

May 2004

This edition of Electoral Newsfile includes the seat status for all electoral divisions as a result of the 2001 Federal Election. In addition, the Newsfile includes post redistribution seat status for divisions in States which have undergone redistributions since the 2001 Federal Election.

Redistribution Process

Since the 2001 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.

The redistribution of electoral boundaries in Victoria was triggered in 2002 under the seven-year-rule and was covered in Electoral Newsfile No. 106.

The redistributions in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory were triggered by a change in entitlement to representation. Following this determination made on 19 February 2003, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) met on 12 March 2003, to direct the commencement of redistributions in Queensland and South Australia. The Northern Territory did not undergo a redistribution as it reverted to being a single electoral division as a result of the determination made on 19 February 2003. This determination has since been set aside by Parliament, meaning that the Northern Territory will again field two divisions at the next federal election. More details on these redistributions are available in Electoral Newsfile numbers 110, 111 and 112. Divisional and State maps of the new boundaries are available for purchase from the AEC.

Notional seat status

Following the conclusion of the redistribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral divisions, ie which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 2001 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AECs computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in Queensland will be compared against the notional 2001 votes following the redistribution and not against the actual 2001 votes.

How is status defined?

Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences. In the Independently held seats of Calare, New England and Kennedy a separate count of ballot papers was held to determine a TPP result.

By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as marginal (M); between 56–59% it is classified as fairly safe (FS) and more than 60% is considered safe (S).

How is the TPP calculated after a redistribution?

The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.

New South Wales – 2001 Election
NSW ALP LP/NP Status
Banks 52.89 47.11 M/ALP
Barton 56.02 43.98 FS/ALP
Bennelong 42.29 57.71 FS/LP
Berowra 34.35 65.65 S/LP
Blaxland 65.21 34.79 S/ALP
Bradfield 28.84 71.16 S/LP
Calare* 48.27 51.73 M/LP/NP
Charlton 56.66 43.34 FS/ALP
Chifley 65.29 34.71 S/ALP
Cook 36.00 64.00 S/LP
Cowper 45.27 54.73 M/NP
Cunningham 60.65 39.35 S/ALP
Dobell 49.62 50.38 M/ALP
Eden-Monaro 48.31 51.69 M/LP
Farrer 33.63 66.37 M/LP
Fowler 71.49 28.51 S/ALP
Gilmore 35.37 64.63 S/LP
Grayndler 71.29 28.71 S/ALP
Greenway 53.11 46.89 M/ALP
Gwydir 35.12 64.88 S/NP
Hughes 39.59 60.41 S/LP
Hume 40.21 59.79 FS/LP
Hunter 60.86 39.14 S/ALP
Kingsford Smith 58.90 41.10 FS/ALP
Lindsay 44.53 55.47 M/LP
Lowe 53.81 46.19 M/ALP
Lyne 38.76 61.24 S/NP
Macarthur 43.04 56.96 FS/LP
Mackellar 33.13 66.87 S/LP
Macquarie 41.33 58.67 FS/LP
Mitchell 28.68 71.32 S/LP
Newcastle 56.91 43.09 FS/ALP
New England* 36.15 63.85 FS/NP
North Sydney 36.78 63.22 S/LP
Page 47.23 52.77 M/NP
Parkes 41.26 58.74 FS/NP
Parramatta 48.85 51.15 M/LP
Paterson 48.58 51.42 M/LP
Prospect 62.81 37.19 S/ALP
Reid 66.87 33.13 S/ALP
Richmond 48.32 51.68 M/NP
Riverina 30.13 69.87 S/NP
Robertson 43.02 56.98 FS/LP
Shortland 58.78 41.22 FS/LP
Sydney 65.04 34.96 S/ALP
Throsby 65.10 34.90 S/ALP
Warringah 37.34 62.66 S/LP
Watson 67.31 32.69 S/ALP
Wentworth 42.14 57.86 FS/LP
Werriwa 58.49 41.51 FS/ALP
NSW Total 48.34 51.66  
Victoria
VIC 2001 Election 2002–03 Post Redistribution
ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Aston 43.83 56.17 FS/LP 43.98 56.02 FS/LP
Ballarat 52.73 47.27 M/ALP 53.24 46.76 M/ALP
Batman 75.08 24.92 S/ALP 75.07 24.93 S/ALP
Bendigo 53.57 46.43 M/ALP 53.55 46.45 M/ALP
Bruce 55.55 44.45 M/ALP 56.48 43.52 FS/ALP
Burke 55.51 44.49 M/ALP - - -
Calwell 67.73 32.27 S/ALP 65.23 34.77 S/ALP
Casey 42.84 57.16 FS/LP 42.80 57.20 FS/LP
Chisholm 52.77 47.23 M/ALP 52.68 47.32 M/ALP
Corangamite 44.33 55.67 M/LP 44.63 55.37 M/LP
Corio 58.70 41.30 FS/ALP 58.51 41.49 FS/ALP
Deakin 48.26 51.74 M/LP 48.40 51.60 M/LP
Dunkley 44.58 55.42 M/LP 44.78 55.22 M/LP
Flinders 42.38 57.62 FS/LP 42.56 57.44 FS/LP
Gellibrand 71.78 28.22 S/ALP 70.41 29.59 S/ALP
Gippsland 41.95 58.05 FS/NP 47.42 52.58 M/NP
Goldstein 40.52 59.48 FS/LP 40.50 59.50 FS/LP
Gorton - - - 69.97 30.03 S/ALP
Higgins 41.61 58.39 FS/LP 41.61 58.39 FS/LP
Holt 63.32 36.68 S/ALP 57.91 42.09 FS/ALP
Hotham 61.02 38.98 S/ALP 60.99 39.01 S/ALP
Indi 38.85 61.15 S/LP 39.30 60.70 S/LP
Isaacs 52.81 47.19 M/ALP 56.60 43.38 FS/ALP
Jagajaga 55.64 44.36 M/ALP 55.28 44.72 M/ALP
Kooyong 39.06 60.94 S/LP 39.06 60.94 S/LP
Lalor 65.63 34.37 S/ALP 62.06 37.94 S/ALP
La Trobe 46.33 53.67 M/LP 46.33 53.67 M/LP
McEwen 48.80 51.20 M/LP 47.68 52.32 M/LP
McMillan 52.46 47.54 M/ALP 47.16 52.84 M/LP
Mallee 30.07 69.93 S/NP 29.14 70.86 S/NP
Maribyrnong 67.38 32.62 S/ALP 65.43 34.57 S/ALP
Melbourne 70.09 29.91 S/ALP 69.88 30.12 S/ALP
Melbourne Ports 55.69 44.31 M/ALP 55.69 44.31 M/ALP
Menzies 41.06 58.94 FS/LP 41.09 58.91 FS/LP
Murray 26.07 73.93 S/LP 28.06 71.94 S/LP
Scullin 69.19 30.81 S/ALP 70.24 29.76 S/ALP
Wannon 40.39 59.61 FS/LP 40.77 59.23 FS/LP
Wills 69.42 30.58 S/ALP 70.57 29.43 S/ALP
Vic Total 52.14 47.86   52.14 47.86  
Queensland
QLD 2001 Election 2002–03 Post Redistribution
ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Blair 41.50 58.50 FS/LP 43.38 56.62 FS/LP
Bonner - - - 51.88 48.12 M/ALP
Bowman 51.42 48.58 M/ALP 46.94 53.06 M/LP
Brisbane 53.13 46.87 M/ALP 51.03 48.97 M/ALP
Capricornia 56.86 43.14 FS/ALP 55.51 44.49 M/ALP
Dawson 42.01 57.99 FS/NP 42.01 57.99 FS/NP
Dickson 44.03 55.97 M/LP 43.98 56.02 FS/LP
Fadden 37.71 62.29 S/LP 36.88 63.12 S/LP
Fairfax 40.79 59.21 FS/LP 40.82 59.18 FS/LP
Fisher 37.94 62.06 S/LP 38.23 61.77 S/LP
Forde 42.62 57.38 FS/LP 43.02 56.98 FS/LP
Griffith 55.66 44.34 M/ALP 56.15 43.85 FS/ALP
Groom 34.91 65.09 S/LP 34.91 65.09 S/LP
Herbert 48.38 51.62 M/LP 48.47 51.53 M/LP
Hinkler 49.96 50.04 M/NP 47.85 52.15 M/NP
Kennedy* 41.05 58.95 FS/NP 41.55 58.45 S/LP/NP
Leichhardt 43.61 56.39 FS/LP 43.61 56.39 FS/LP
Lilley 54.83 45.17 M/ALP 54.57 45.43 M/ALP
Longman 47.28 52.72 M/LP 47.48 52.52 M/LP
McPherson 37.45 62.55 S/LP 37.83 62.17 S/LP
Maranoa 33.99 66.01 S/NP 34.62 65.38 S/NP
Moncrieff 34.58 65.42 S/LP 33.66 66.34 S/LP
Moreton 45.79 54.21 M/LP 47.44 52.56 M/LP
Oxley 58.14 41.86 FS/ALP 57.96 42.04 FS/ALP
Petrie 46.58 53.42 M/LP 46.52 53.48 M/LP
Rankin 56.68 43.32 FS/ALP 52.42 47.58 M/ALP
Ryan 41.38 58.62 FS/LP 40.44 59.56 FS/LP
Wide Bay 39.27 60.73 S/NP 40.09 59.91 FS/NP
Qld Total 45.14 54.86   45.14 54.86  
Western Australia – 2001 Election
WA ALP LP/NP Status
Brand 60.05 39.95 S/ALP
Canning 49.62 50.38 M/LP
Cowan 55.51 44.49 M/ALP
Curtin 36.09 63.91 S/LP
Forrest 42.39 57.61 FS/LP
Fremantle 60.67 39.33 S/ALP
Hasluck 51.78 48.22 M/ALP
Kalgoorlie 45.66 54.34 M/LP
Moore 43.96 56.04 FS/LP
O'Connor 30.91 69.09 S/LP
Pearce 43.12 56.88 FS/LP
Perth 61.21 38.79 S/ALP
Stirling 51.58 48.42 M/ALP
Swan 52.04 47.96 M/ALP
Tangney 42.03 57.97 FS/LP
WA Total 48.38 51.62  
South Australia
SA 2001 Election 2003 Post-redistribution
ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Adelaide 49.78 50.22 M/LP 49.38 50.62 M/LP
Barker 34.31 65.69 S/LP 33.37 66.63 S/LP
Bonython 60.42 39.58 S/ALP - - -
Boothby 42.65 57.35 FS/LP 42.62 57.38 FS/LP
Grey 39.44 60.56 S/LP 39.35 60.65 S/LP
Hindmarsh 48.14 51.86 M/LP 49.04 50.96 M/LP
Kingston 52.42 47.58 M/ALP 51.35 48.65 M/ALP
Makin 46.24 53.76 M/LP 46.34 53.66 M/LP
Mayo 37.13 62.87 S/LP 35.69 64.31 S/LP
Port Adelaide 64.65 35.35 S/ALP 66.00 34.00 S/ALP
Sturt 41.82 58.18 FS/LP 41.51 58.49 FS/LP
Wakefield 35.44 64.56 S/LP 51.26 48.74 M/ALP
SA Total 45.92 54.08   45.92 54.08  

* Explanation Note

In Calare, New England and Kennedy the TPP result was used to calculate the result. The Two Candidate Preferred (TCP) result is as follows:
Calare (NSW) Ind: 75.04 NP: 24.96 Safe Independent (2001 Election)
New England (NSW) Ind: 58.30 NP: 41.70 Fairly Safe Independent (2001 Election)
Kennedy (QLD) Ind: 69.18 ALP: 30.82 Safe Independent (2003 Redistribution)
Tasmania – 2001 Election
TAS ALP LP/NP Status
Bass 52.06 47.94 M/ALP
Braddon 55.96 44.04 M/ALP
Denison 64.26 35.74 S/ALP
Franklin 58.04 41.96 FS/ALP
Lyons 58.17 41.83 FS/ALP
TAS Total 57.73 42.27  
Australian Capital Territory – 2001 Election
ACT ALP LP/NP Status
Canberra 59.44 40.56 FS/ALP
Fraser 62.69 37.31 S/ALP
ACT Total 61.08 38.92  
Northern Territory – 2001 Election
NT ALP LP/NP Status
Lingiari 55.29 44.71 M/ALP
Solomon 49.91 50.09 M/CLP
NT Total 52.49 47.51  

2002/2003 Redistributions

Since the 2001 election there have been redistributions in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. The Division of Burke in VIC was abolished to create a new outer metropolitan division to the west of Melbourne named the Division of Gorton. Queensland gained a division which is known as Bonner and the Division of Bonython was abolished in SA.

The Northern Territory did not undergo a redistribution as it reverted to being a single electoral division as a result of the determination made on 19 February 2003. This determination has since been set aside by Parliament, meaning that the Northern Territory will again field two divisions at the next federal election.

A range of AEC publications are available including:

  • Candidates Handbook: information to assist candidates in the election
  • Scrutineers Handbook: information to assist scrutineers in the election
  • 2001 Federal Electoral Results Map
  • 2001 Division Profile Book
  • 2001 Electoral Pocketbook
  • 2001 Election Statistics including the Behind the Scenes Election Report (limited printed copies available while stocks last). Also available in CD ROM format.
Notional Seat Status by State by Party
  2001 Election 2002–03 Post Redistribution
Victoria
ALP 20 19
LP/NP 17 18
IND --  
Queensland
ALP 7 7
LP/NP 19 20
IND 1 1
South Australia
ALP 3 3
LP/NP 9 8
IND - -

Media Liaison

Members of the media are asked to use the Media Liaison and Head Office contact numbers listed rather than the general enquiry number 13 23 26 which appears on AEC advertising.

Media Liaison
Assistant Commissioner Public Awareness,
Media & Research Branch
Brien Hallett
(02) 6271 4477
Director
Media & Communication Section
Phil Diak
(02) 6271 4415
Assistant Directors
Media & Communication Section
Margaret Meneghel
Roger Wills
Bernadette O'Meara
(02) 6271 4548
(02) 6271 4431
(02) 6271 4529
Editor, Newsfile Shirley Weber (02) 6271 4720

State/Territory Head Offices

The administration of a Federal Election in each State and Territory is under the control of the Australian Electoral Officer (AEO) for that State or Territory. An AEO for the ACT is temporarily appointed for each election.

AEOs may be contacted on the following numbers.
New South Wales
David Farrell Ph. (02) 9375 6333 Fx. (02) 9281 9384
Victoria
Daryl Wight Ph. (03) 9285 7171 Fx. (03) 9285 7178
Queensland
Anne Bright Ph. (07) 3834 3400Fx. (07) 3831 7223
Western Australia
Jennie Gzik Ph. (08) 6363 8080 Fx. (08) 6363 8051
South Australia
Chris Drury Ph. (08) 8237 6555 Fx. (08) 8231 2664
Tasmania
Alex Stanelos Ph. (03) 6235 0500 Fx. (03) 6234 4268
Northern Territory
Bill Shepheard Ph. (08) 8982 8000 Fx. (08) 8981 7964

NATIONAL ENQUIRY SERVICE 13 23 26