Australian Electoral Commission

Electoral Newsfile 97: Seat Status including notional seat status for SA, NSW, Tas, WA and NT Divisions

Updated: 23 March 2011

This edition of Electoral Newsfile includes the seat status for all Electoral Divisions as a result of the 1998 Federal Election. In addition, the Newsfile includes post redistribution seat status for Divisions in States and the Northern Territory which have undergone redistributions since the 1998 Federal Election.

Redistributions of electoral boundaries

Since the 1998 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in South Australia, New South Wales, Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

The redistributions of electoral boundaries in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania were triggered in 1999 under the 'seven year rule' and were covered in Electoral Newsfile number 80.

On 23 December 1999, the Electoral Commissioner determined that the representation entitlements of Western Australia and the Northern Territory would change due to shifts in the population. This was the first stage of the redistribution of electoral boundaries in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. More details on these redistributions are available in Electoral Newsfile numbers 88, 92 and 94. Divisional and State maps of the new boundaries are available for purchase from the AEC. In addition, a national boundaries map is available from any AEC office.

Notional seat status

Following the conclusion of the distribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral Divisions, ie which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 1998 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AEC's computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in NSW will be compared against estimated votes following the redistribution and not those votes obtained at the 1998 election.

How is status defined?

Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences.

By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as 'marginal' (M); between 56–59% it is classified as 'fairly safe' (FS) and more than 60% is considered 'safe' (S).

How is the TPP calculated after a redistribution?

The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral Division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.

The notional seat status has been adjusted to take account of the catchment of polling places as at the 1999 Referendum.

  1998 Election 1999 Post-redistribution
NSW ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Banks 57.11 42.89 FS/ALP 57.26 42.74 FS/ALP
Barton 59.76 40.24 FS/ALP 59.79 40.21 FS/ALP
Bennelong 43.97 56.03 FS/LP 44.77 55.23 M/LP
Berowra 36.48 63.52 S/LP 36.70 63.30 S/LP
Blaxland 72.06 27.94 S/ALP 71.71 28.29 S/ALP
Bradfield 26.80 73.20 S/LP 28.71 71.29 S/LP
Calare* 46.79 53.21 M/LP 45.53 54.47 M/LP
Charlton 62.97 37.03 S/ALP 62.20 37.80 S/ALP
Chifley 70.89 29.11 S/ALP 71.27 28.73 S/ALP
Cook 41.06 58.94 FS/LP 40.63 59.37 FS/LP
Cowper 43.64 56.36 FS/NP 44.29 55.71 M/NP
Cunningham 68.20 31.80 S/ALP 67.77 32.23 S/ALP
Dobell 53.35 46.65 M/ALP 51.53 48.47 M/ALP
Eden-Monaro 49.82 50.18 M/LP 49.38 50.62 M/LP
Farrer 35.38 64.62 S/NP 35.82 64.18 S/NP
Fowler 76.33 23.67 S/ALP 75.99 24.01 S/ALP
Gilmore 45.96 54.04 M/LP 45.45 54.55 M/LP
Grayndler 72.32 27.68 S/ALP 72.32 27.68 S/ALP
Greenway 59.94 40.06 FS/ALP 59.55 40.45 FS/ALP
Gwydir 36.42 63.58 S/NP 38.00 62.00 S/NP
Hughes 44.48 55.52 M/NP 43.64 56.36 FS/LP
Hume 41.94 58.06 FS/LP 42.67 57.33 FS/LP
Hunter 64.69 35.31 S/ALP 64.05 35.95 S/ALP
Kingsford Smith 63.40 36.60 S/ALP 62.95 37.05 S/ALP
Lindsay 48.72 51.28 M/LP 46.97 53.03 M/LP
Lowe 54.63 45.37 M/ALP 54.70 45.30 M/ALP
Lyne 40.28 59.72 FS/NP 39.87 60.13 S/NP
Macarthur 44.37 55.63 M/LP 51.69 48.31 M/ALP
Mackellar 34.36 65.64 S/LP 32.87 67.13 S/LP
Macquarie 45.90 54.10 M/LP 44.23 55.77 M/LP
Mitchell 30.15 69.85 S/LP 30.53 69.47 S/LP
Newcastle** 66.49 33.51 S/ALP
New England 37.07 62.93 S/NP 36.34 63.66 S/NP
North Sydney 37.78 62.22 S/LP 37.34 62.66 S/LP
Page 47.64 52.36 M/NP 46.64 53.36 M/NP
Parkes 45.89 54.11 M/NP 43.62 56.38 FS/NP
Parramatta 48.93 51.07 M/LP 52.49 47.51 M/ALP
Paterson 51.22 48.78 M/ALP 48.74 51.26 M/LP
Prospect 69.71 30.29 S/ALP 66.77 33.23 S/ALP
Reid 71.64 28.36 S/ALP 72.17 27.83 S/ALP
Richmond 49.23 50.77 M/NP 49.17 50.83 M/NP
Riverina 34.70 65.30 S/NP 35.34 64.66 S/NP
Robertson 47.99 52.01 M/LP 47.99 52.01 M/LP
Shortland 62.81 37.19 S/ALP 62.23 37.77 S/ALP
Sydney 66.89 33.11 S/ALP 69.76 30.24 S/ALP
Throsby 72.46 27.54 S/ALP 72.42 27.58 S/ALP
Warringah 37.02 62.98 S/LP 37.22 62.78 S/LP
Watson 67.47 32.53 S/ALP 67.62 32.38 S/ALP
Wentworth 43.68 56.32 FS/LP 42.63 57.37 FS/LP
Werriwa 62.67 37.33 S/ALP 62.62 37.38 S/ALP
NSW Total 51.54 48.46   51.54 48.46  

* The seat status for Calare is based on the two candidate preferred result:

Independent: 72.31
ALP: 27.69
Status: S/IND

** Due to the death of a candidate in the Division of Newcastle prior to polling day, a supplementary election for this seat was held on 21 November 1998. A two party preferred figure could not be calculated for the supplementary election as a Liberal/National candidate did not stand for election. The following seat status is based on the two candidate prefered result:

Green: 32.67
ALP: 67.33
Status: S/ALP

  1998 Election
VIC ALP LP/NP Status
Aston 45.76 54.24 M/LP
Ballarat 47.23 52.77 M/LP
Batman 76.43 23.57 S/ALP
Bendigo 53.47 46.53 M/ALP
Bruce 56.72 43.28 FS/ALP
Burke 57.61 42.39 FS/ALP
Calwell 68.98 31.02 S/ALP
Casey 45.13 54.87 M/LP
Chisholm 52.07 47.93 M/ALP
Corangamite 45.50 54.50 M/LP
Corio 61.36 38.64 S/ALP
Deakin 48.07 51.93 M/LP
Dunkley 47.96 52.04 M/LP
Flinders 46.28 53.72 M/LP
Gellibrand 75.91 24.09 S/ALP
Gippsland 41.17 58.83 FS/NP
Goldstein 41.85 58.15 FS/LP
Higgins 40.38 59.62 FS/LP
Holt 65.11 34.89 S/ALP
Hotham 63.59 36.41 S/ALP
Indi 39.89 60.11 S/LP
Isaacs 56.40 43.60 FS/ALP
Jagajaga 55.91 44.09 M/ALP
Kooyong 38.61 61.39 S/LP
Lalor 69.82 30.18 S/ALP
La Trobe 49.01 50.99 M/LP
McEwen 48.96 51.04 M/LP
McMillan 50.57 49.43 M/ALP
Mallee 30.63 69.37 S/NP
Maribyrnong 72.06 27.94 S/ALP
Melbourne 71.80 28.20 S/ALP
Melbourne Ports 55.83 44.17 M/ALP
Menzies 44.60 55.40 M/LP
Murray 27.94 72.06 S/LP
Scullin 71.84 28.16 S/ALP
Wannon 42.56 57.44 FS/LP
Wills 70.96 29.04 S/ALP
VIC Total 53.53 46.47 M/ALP

 

  1998 Election
QLD ALP LP/NP Status
Blair 41.97 58.03 M/LP
Bowman 53.29 46.71 M/ALP
Brisbane 54.59 45.41 M/ALP
Capricornia 55.29 44.71 M/ALP
Dawson 45.58 54.42 M/NP
Dickson 50.12 49.88 M/ALP
Fadden 42.41 57.59 FS/LP
Fairfax 45.64 54.36 M/LP
Fisher 39.00 61.00 S/LP
Forde 44.75 55.25 M/LP
Griffith 52.43 47.57 M/ALP
Groom 36.96 63.04 S/LP
Herbert 49.90 50.10 M/LP
Hinkler 49.66 50.34 M/NP
Kennedy 38.81 61.19 S/NP
Leichhardt 45.95 54.05 M/LP
Lilley 53.13 46.87 M/ALP
Longman 49.08 50.92 M/LP
McPherson 41.66 58.34 FS/LP
Maranoa 35.58 64.42 S/NP
Moncrieff 37.17 62.83 S/LP
Moreton 49.43 50.57 M/LP
Oxley 58.20 41.80 FS/ALP
Petrie 49.25 50.75 M/LP
Rankin 58.69 41.31 FS/ALP
Ryan 40.48 59.52 FS/LP
Wide Bay 47.14 52.86 M/NP
QLD Total 46.95 53.05  

 

  1998 Election 2000 Post-redistribution
WA ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Brand 62.29 37.71 S/ALP 63.37 36.63 S/ALP
Canning 53.52 46.48 M/ALP 50.04 49.96 M/ALP
Cowan 53.56 46.44 M/ALP 53.11 46.89 M/ALP
Curtin 36.72 63.28 S/LP 36.52 63.48 S/LP
Forrest 43.12 56.88 FS/LP 45.40 54.60 M/LP
Fremantle 60.02 39.98 S/ALP 62.29 37.71 S/ALP
Hasluck 52.55 47.45 M/ALP
Kalgoorlie 47.90 52.10 M/LP 47.90 52.10 M/LP
Moore 45.87 54.13 M/LP 44.38 55.62 M/LP
O'Connor 34.86 65.14 S/LP 33.43 66.57 S/LP
Pearce 44.70 55.30 M/LP 44.81 55.19 M/LP
Perth 63.28 36.72 S/ALP 62.54 37.46 S/ALP
Stirling 51.04 48.96 M/ALP 52.16 47.84 M/ALP
Swan 52.70 47.30 M/ALP 52.75 47.25 M/ALP
Tangney 44.10 55.90 M/LP 42.96 57.04 FS/LP
WA Total 49.46 50.54   49.46 50.54  

 

  1998 Election 2000 Post-redistribution
SA ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Adelaide 49.09 50.91 M/LP 49.35 50.65 M/LP
Barker 36.26 63.74 S/LP 35.96 64.04 S/LP
Bonython 64.53 35.47 S/ALP 63.31 36.69 S/ALP
Boothby 42.55 57.45 FS/LP 42.39 57.61 FS/LP
Grey 41.96 58.04 FS/LP 40.97 59.03 FS/LP
Hindmarsh 48.77 51.23 M/LP 48.77 51.23 M/LP
Kingston 50.47 49.53 M/ALP 51.88 48.12 M/ALP
Makin 49.06 50.94 M/LP 49.22 50.78 M/LP
Mayo 40.10 59.90 FS/LP 40.46 59.54 FS/LP
Port Adelaide 66.10 33.90 S/ALP 65.72 34.28 S/ALP
Sturt 42.71 57.29 FS/LP 42.28 57.72 FS/LP
Wakefield 33.71 66.29 S/LP 33.36 66.64 S/LP
SA Total 46.89 53.11   46.89 53.11  

 

  1998 Election 2000 Post-redistribution
TAS ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Bass 50.06 49.94 M/ALP 50.19 49.81 M/ALP
Braddon 54.33 45.67 M/ALP 54.28 45.72 M/ALP
Denison 64.51 35.49 S/ALP 64.51 35.49 S/ALP
Franklin 56.60 43.40 FS/ALP 56.60 43.40 FS/ALP
Lyons 60.61 39.39 S/ALP 61.11 38.89 S/ALP
TAS Total 57.32 42.68   57.32 42.68  

 

  1998 Election
ACT ALP LP/NP Status
Canberra 60.06 39.94 S/ALP
Fraser 64.86 35.14 S/ALP
ACT Total 62.44 37.56  

 

  1998 Election 2000 Post-redistribution
NT ALP LP/NP Status ALP LP/NP Status
Northern Territory 50.57 49.43 M/ALP      
Lingiari       53.53 46.47 M/ALP
Solomon       47.76 52.24 M/LP
NT Total 50.57 49.43   50.57 49.43  

Notional Seat Status by State

  1998 Election 2000 Post-redistribution
New South Wales
ALP 22 23
LP/NP 27 27
IND 1
Western Australia
ALP 7 8
LP/NP 7 7
IND
South Australia
ALP 3 3
LP/NP 9 9
IND
Tasmania
ALP 5 5
LP/NP
IND
Northern Territory
ALP 1 1
LP/NP 1
IND

Note: the Column for the 1998 election shows who actually won seats and includes the Independents in NSW. The post redistribution column shows notional seat status on a two-party preferred basis and therefore does not identify any independent seats.

Australian Electoral Commission Contacts

Central Office

Electoral Commissioner
Andy Becker
(02) 6271 4400
Deputy Electoral Commissioner
Paul Dacey
(02) 6271 4410
First Assistant Commissioner
Electoral Operations
Tim Pickering (acting)
(02) 6271 4405
 

National Media Enquiries

Assistant Commissioner
Information and Research
Brien Hallett
(02) 6271 4411
Director, Information
Anthea Wilson (acting)
(02) 62714415
Assistant Directors, Information
Margaret Meneghel (acting)
(02) 6271 4548
Roger Wills (acting)
(02) 6271 4431
Editor, Newsfile
Shirley Weber
(02) 6271 4505

Visit the AEC's website www.aec.gov.au.

National Enquiry Service 13 23 26.

State/Territory Head Offices

Australian Electoral Officers may be contacted on the following numbers:

New South Wales
Frances Howat
Ph. (02) 9375 6333
Fx. (02) 9281 9384
Victoria
David Muffet
Ph. (03) 9285 7171
Fx. (03) 9285 7178
Queensland
Bob Longland
Ph. (07) 3834 3400
Fx. (07) 3831 7223
Western Australia
Andrew Moyes
Ph. (08) 9470 7299
Fx. (08) 9472 3551
South Australia
Geoff Halsey
Ph. (08) 8237 6555
Fx. (08) 8231 2664
Tasmania
Alex Stanelos
Ph. (03) 6235 0500
Fx. (03) 6234 4268
Northern Territory
Bill Shepheard
Ph. (08) 8982 8000
Fx. (08) 8981 7964
 

Further Information

The AEC produces a range of information materials for political parties, journalists and other people interested in the electoral process. These are available from all AEC Offices and the website.