Australian Electoral Commission
This edition of Electoral Newsfile includes the seat status for all Electoral Divisions as a result of the 1998 Federal Election. In addition, the Newsfile includes post redistribution seat status for Divisions in States and the Northern Territory which have undergone redistributions since the 1998 Federal Election.
Since the 1998 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in South Australia, New South Wales, Tasmania, Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
The redistributions of electoral boundaries in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania were triggered in 1999 under the 'seven year rule' and were covered in Electoral Newsfile number 80.
On 23 December 1999, the Electoral Commissioner determined that the representation entitlements of Western Australia and the Northern Territory would change due to shifts in the population. This was the first stage of the redistribution of electoral boundaries in Western Australia and the Northern Territory. More details on these redistributions are available in Electoral Newsfile numbers 88, 92 and 94. Divisional and State maps of the new boundaries are available for purchase from the AEC. In addition, a national boundaries map is available from any AEC office.
Following the conclusion of the distribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral Divisions, ie which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 1998 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AEC's computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in NSW will be compared against estimated votes following the redistribution and not those votes obtained at the 1998 election.
Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences.
By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as 'marginal' (M); between 56–59% it is classified as 'fairly safe' (FS) and more than 60% is considered 'safe' (S).
The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral Division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.
The notional seat status has been adjusted to take account of the catchment of polling places as at the 1999 Referendum.
| 1998 Election | 1999 Post-redistribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | ALP | LP/NP | Status | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Banks | 57.11 | 42.89 | FS/ALP | 57.26 | 42.74 | FS/ALP |
| Barton | 59.76 | 40.24 | FS/ALP | 59.79 | 40.21 | FS/ALP |
| Bennelong | 43.97 | 56.03 | FS/LP | 44.77 | 55.23 | M/LP |
| Berowra | 36.48 | 63.52 | S/LP | 36.70 | 63.30 | S/LP |
| Blaxland | 72.06 | 27.94 | S/ALP | 71.71 | 28.29 | S/ALP |
| Bradfield | 26.80 | 73.20 | S/LP | 28.71 | 71.29 | S/LP |
| Calare* | 46.79 | 53.21 | M/LP | 45.53 | 54.47 | M/LP |
| Charlton | 62.97 | 37.03 | S/ALP | 62.20 | 37.80 | S/ALP |
| Chifley | 70.89 | 29.11 | S/ALP | 71.27 | 28.73 | S/ALP |
| Cook | 41.06 | 58.94 | FS/LP | 40.63 | 59.37 | FS/LP |
| Cowper | 43.64 | 56.36 | FS/NP | 44.29 | 55.71 | M/NP |
| Cunningham | 68.20 | 31.80 | S/ALP | 67.77 | 32.23 | S/ALP |
| Dobell | 53.35 | 46.65 | M/ALP | 51.53 | 48.47 | M/ALP |
| Eden-Monaro | 49.82 | 50.18 | M/LP | 49.38 | 50.62 | M/LP |
| Farrer | 35.38 | 64.62 | S/NP | 35.82 | 64.18 | S/NP |
| Fowler | 76.33 | 23.67 | S/ALP | 75.99 | 24.01 | S/ALP |
| Gilmore | 45.96 | 54.04 | M/LP | 45.45 | 54.55 | M/LP |
| Grayndler | 72.32 | 27.68 | S/ALP | 72.32 | 27.68 | S/ALP |
| Greenway | 59.94 | 40.06 | FS/ALP | 59.55 | 40.45 | FS/ALP |
| Gwydir | 36.42 | 63.58 | S/NP | 38.00 | 62.00 | S/NP |
| Hughes | 44.48 | 55.52 | M/NP | 43.64 | 56.36 | FS/LP |
| Hume | 41.94 | 58.06 | FS/LP | 42.67 | 57.33 | FS/LP |
| Hunter | 64.69 | 35.31 | S/ALP | 64.05 | 35.95 | S/ALP |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.40 | 36.60 | S/ALP | 62.95 | 37.05 | S/ALP |
| Lindsay | 48.72 | 51.28 | M/LP | 46.97 | 53.03 | M/LP |
| Lowe | 54.63 | 45.37 | M/ALP | 54.70 | 45.30 | M/ALP |
| Lyne | 40.28 | 59.72 | FS/NP | 39.87 | 60.13 | S/NP |
| Macarthur | 44.37 | 55.63 | M/LP | 51.69 | 48.31 | M/ALP |
| Mackellar | 34.36 | 65.64 | S/LP | 32.87 | 67.13 | S/LP |
| Macquarie | 45.90 | 54.10 | M/LP | 44.23 | 55.77 | M/LP |
| Mitchell | 30.15 | 69.85 | S/LP | 30.53 | 69.47 | S/LP |
| Newcastle** | – | – | – | 66.49 | 33.51 | S/ALP |
| New England | 37.07 | 62.93 | S/NP | 36.34 | 63.66 | S/NP |
| North Sydney | 37.78 | 62.22 | S/LP | 37.34 | 62.66 | S/LP |
| Page | 47.64 | 52.36 | M/NP | 46.64 | 53.36 | M/NP |
| Parkes | 45.89 | 54.11 | M/NP | 43.62 | 56.38 | FS/NP |
| Parramatta | 48.93 | 51.07 | M/LP | 52.49 | 47.51 | M/ALP |
| Paterson | 51.22 | 48.78 | M/ALP | 48.74 | 51.26 | M/LP |
| Prospect | 69.71 | 30.29 | S/ALP | 66.77 | 33.23 | S/ALP |
| Reid | 71.64 | 28.36 | S/ALP | 72.17 | 27.83 | S/ALP |
| Richmond | 49.23 | 50.77 | M/NP | 49.17 | 50.83 | M/NP |
| Riverina | 34.70 | 65.30 | S/NP | 35.34 | 64.66 | S/NP |
| Robertson | 47.99 | 52.01 | M/LP | 47.99 | 52.01 | M/LP |
| Shortland | 62.81 | 37.19 | S/ALP | 62.23 | 37.77 | S/ALP |
| Sydney | 66.89 | 33.11 | S/ALP | 69.76 | 30.24 | S/ALP |
| Throsby | 72.46 | 27.54 | S/ALP | 72.42 | 27.58 | S/ALP |
| Warringah | 37.02 | 62.98 | S/LP | 37.22 | 62.78 | S/LP |
| Watson | 67.47 | 32.53 | S/ALP | 67.62 | 32.38 | S/ALP |
| Wentworth | 43.68 | 56.32 | FS/LP | 42.63 | 57.37 | FS/LP |
| Werriwa | 62.67 | 37.33 | S/ALP | 62.62 | 37.38 | S/ALP |
| NSW Total | 51.54 | 48.46 | 51.54 | 48.46 | ||
* The seat status for Calare is based on the two candidate preferred result:
Independent: 72.31
ALP: 27.69
Status: S/IND
** Due to the death of a candidate in the Division of Newcastle prior to polling day, a supplementary election for this seat was held on 21 November 1998. A two party preferred figure could not be calculated for the supplementary election as a Liberal/National candidate did not stand for election. The following seat status is based on the two candidate prefered result:
Green: 32.67
ALP: 67.33
Status: S/ALP
| 1998 Election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| VIC | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Aston | 45.76 | 54.24 | M/LP |
| Ballarat | 47.23 | 52.77 | M/LP |
| Batman | 76.43 | 23.57 | S/ALP |
| Bendigo | 53.47 | 46.53 | M/ALP |
| Bruce | 56.72 | 43.28 | FS/ALP |
| Burke | 57.61 | 42.39 | FS/ALP |
| Calwell | 68.98 | 31.02 | S/ALP |
| Casey | 45.13 | 54.87 | M/LP |
| Chisholm | 52.07 | 47.93 | M/ALP |
| Corangamite | 45.50 | 54.50 | M/LP |
| Corio | 61.36 | 38.64 | S/ALP |
| Deakin | 48.07 | 51.93 | M/LP |
| Dunkley | 47.96 | 52.04 | M/LP |
| Flinders | 46.28 | 53.72 | M/LP |
| Gellibrand | 75.91 | 24.09 | S/ALP |
| Gippsland | 41.17 | 58.83 | FS/NP |
| Goldstein | 41.85 | 58.15 | FS/LP |
| Higgins | 40.38 | 59.62 | FS/LP |
| Holt | 65.11 | 34.89 | S/ALP |
| Hotham | 63.59 | 36.41 | S/ALP |
| Indi | 39.89 | 60.11 | S/LP |
| Isaacs | 56.40 | 43.60 | FS/ALP |
| Jagajaga | 55.91 | 44.09 | M/ALP |
| Kooyong | 38.61 | 61.39 | S/LP |
| Lalor | 69.82 | 30.18 | S/ALP |
| La Trobe | 49.01 | 50.99 | M/LP |
| McEwen | 48.96 | 51.04 | M/LP |
| McMillan | 50.57 | 49.43 | M/ALP |
| Mallee | 30.63 | 69.37 | S/NP |
| Maribyrnong | 72.06 | 27.94 | S/ALP |
| Melbourne | 71.80 | 28.20 | S/ALP |
| Melbourne Ports | 55.83 | 44.17 | M/ALP |
| Menzies | 44.60 | 55.40 | M/LP |
| Murray | 27.94 | 72.06 | S/LP |
| Scullin | 71.84 | 28.16 | S/ALP |
| Wannon | 42.56 | 57.44 | FS/LP |
| Wills | 70.96 | 29.04 | S/ALP |
| VIC Total | 53.53 | 46.47 | M/ALP |
| 1998 Election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| QLD | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Blair | 41.97 | 58.03 | M/LP |
| Bowman | 53.29 | 46.71 | M/ALP |
| Brisbane | 54.59 | 45.41 | M/ALP |
| Capricornia | 55.29 | 44.71 | M/ALP |
| Dawson | 45.58 | 54.42 | M/NP |
| Dickson | 50.12 | 49.88 | M/ALP |
| Fadden | 42.41 | 57.59 | FS/LP |
| Fairfax | 45.64 | 54.36 | M/LP |
| Fisher | 39.00 | 61.00 | S/LP |
| Forde | 44.75 | 55.25 | M/LP |
| Griffith | 52.43 | 47.57 | M/ALP |
| Groom | 36.96 | 63.04 | S/LP |
| Herbert | 49.90 | 50.10 | M/LP |
| Hinkler | 49.66 | 50.34 | M/NP |
| Kennedy | 38.81 | 61.19 | S/NP |
| Leichhardt | 45.95 | 54.05 | M/LP |
| Lilley | 53.13 | 46.87 | M/ALP |
| Longman | 49.08 | 50.92 | M/LP |
| McPherson | 41.66 | 58.34 | FS/LP |
| Maranoa | 35.58 | 64.42 | S/NP |
| Moncrieff | 37.17 | 62.83 | S/LP |
| Moreton | 49.43 | 50.57 | M/LP |
| Oxley | 58.20 | 41.80 | FS/ALP |
| Petrie | 49.25 | 50.75 | M/LP |
| Rankin | 58.69 | 41.31 | FS/ALP |
| Ryan | 40.48 | 59.52 | FS/LP |
| Wide Bay | 47.14 | 52.86 | M/NP |
| QLD Total | 46.95 | 53.05 | |
| 1998 Election | 2000 Post-redistribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | ALP | LP/NP | Status | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Brand | 62.29 | 37.71 | S/ALP | 63.37 | 36.63 | S/ALP |
| Canning | 53.52 | 46.48 | M/ALP | 50.04 | 49.96 | M/ALP |
| Cowan | 53.56 | 46.44 | M/ALP | 53.11 | 46.89 | M/ALP |
| Curtin | 36.72 | 63.28 | S/LP | 36.52 | 63.48 | S/LP |
| Forrest | 43.12 | 56.88 | FS/LP | 45.40 | 54.60 | M/LP |
| Fremantle | 60.02 | 39.98 | S/ALP | 62.29 | 37.71 | S/ALP |
| Hasluck | – | – | – | 52.55 | 47.45 | M/ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | 47.90 | 52.10 | M/LP | 47.90 | 52.10 | M/LP |
| Moore | 45.87 | 54.13 | M/LP | 44.38 | 55.62 | M/LP |
| O'Connor | 34.86 | 65.14 | S/LP | 33.43 | 66.57 | S/LP |
| Pearce | 44.70 | 55.30 | M/LP | 44.81 | 55.19 | M/LP |
| Perth | 63.28 | 36.72 | S/ALP | 62.54 | 37.46 | S/ALP |
| Stirling | 51.04 | 48.96 | M/ALP | 52.16 | 47.84 | M/ALP |
| Swan | 52.70 | 47.30 | M/ALP | 52.75 | 47.25 | M/ALP |
| Tangney | 44.10 | 55.90 | M/LP | 42.96 | 57.04 | FS/LP |
| WA Total | 49.46 | 50.54 | 49.46 | 50.54 | ||
| 1998 Election | 2000 Post-redistribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | ALP | LP/NP | Status | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Adelaide | 49.09 | 50.91 | M/LP | 49.35 | 50.65 | M/LP |
| Barker | 36.26 | 63.74 | S/LP | 35.96 | 64.04 | S/LP |
| Bonython | 64.53 | 35.47 | S/ALP | 63.31 | 36.69 | S/ALP |
| Boothby | 42.55 | 57.45 | FS/LP | 42.39 | 57.61 | FS/LP |
| Grey | 41.96 | 58.04 | FS/LP | 40.97 | 59.03 | FS/LP |
| Hindmarsh | 48.77 | 51.23 | M/LP | 48.77 | 51.23 | M/LP |
| Kingston | 50.47 | 49.53 | M/ALP | 51.88 | 48.12 | M/ALP |
| Makin | 49.06 | 50.94 | M/LP | 49.22 | 50.78 | M/LP |
| Mayo | 40.10 | 59.90 | FS/LP | 40.46 | 59.54 | FS/LP |
| Port Adelaide | 66.10 | 33.90 | S/ALP | 65.72 | 34.28 | S/ALP |
| Sturt | 42.71 | 57.29 | FS/LP | 42.28 | 57.72 | FS/LP |
| Wakefield | 33.71 | 66.29 | S/LP | 33.36 | 66.64 | S/LP |
| SA Total | 46.89 | 53.11 | 46.89 | 53.11 | ||
| 1998 Election | 2000 Post-redistribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAS | ALP | LP/NP | Status | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Bass | 50.06 | 49.94 | M/ALP | 50.19 | 49.81 | M/ALP |
| Braddon | 54.33 | 45.67 | M/ALP | 54.28 | 45.72 | M/ALP |
| Denison | 64.51 | 35.49 | S/ALP | 64.51 | 35.49 | S/ALP |
| Franklin | 56.60 | 43.40 | FS/ALP | 56.60 | 43.40 | FS/ALP |
| Lyons | 60.61 | 39.39 | S/ALP | 61.11 | 38.89 | S/ALP |
| TAS Total | 57.32 | 42.68 | 57.32 | 42.68 | ||
| 1998 Election | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ACT | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Canberra | 60.06 | 39.94 | S/ALP |
| Fraser | 64.86 | 35.14 | S/ALP |
| ACT Total | 62.44 | 37.56 | |
| 1998 Election | 2000 Post-redistribution | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NT | ALP | LP/NP | Status | ALP | LP/NP | Status |
| Northern Territory | 50.57 | 49.43 | M/ALP | |||
| Lingiari | 53.53 | 46.47 | M/ALP | |||
| Solomon | 47.76 | 52.24 | M/LP | |||
| NT Total | 50.57 | 49.43 | 50.57 | 49.43 | ||
| 1998 Election | 2000 Post-redistribution | |
|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | ||
| ALP | 22 | 23 |
| LP/NP | 27 | 27 |
| IND | 1 | – |
| Western Australia | ||
| ALP | 7 | 8 |
| LP/NP | 7 | 7 |
| IND | – | – |
| South Australia | ||
| ALP | 3 | 3 |
| LP/NP | 9 | 9 |
| IND | – | – |
| Tasmania | ||
| ALP | 5 | 5 |
| LP/NP | – | – |
| IND | – | – |
| Northern Territory | ||
| ALP | 1 | 1 |
| LP/NP | – | 1 |
| IND | – | – |
Note: the Column for the 1998 election shows who actually won seats and includes the Independents in NSW. The post redistribution column shows notional seat status on a two-party preferred basis and therefore does not identify any independent seats.
| Electoral Commissioner Andy Becker (02) 6271 4400 |
Deputy Electoral Commissioner Paul Dacey (02) 6271 4410 |
| First Assistant Commissioner Electoral Operations Tim Pickering (acting) (02) 6271 4405 |
| Assistant Commissioner Information and Research Brien Hallett (02) 6271 4411 |
Director, Information Anthea Wilson (acting) (02) 62714415 |
| Assistant Directors, Information Margaret Meneghel (acting) (02) 6271 4548 Roger Wills (acting) (02) 6271 4431 |
Editor, Newsfile Shirley Weber (02) 6271 4505 |
Visit the AEC's website www.aec.gov.au.
National Enquiry Service 13 23 26.
Australian Electoral Officers may be contacted on the following numbers:
| New South Wales Frances Howat Ph. (02) 9375 6333 Fx. (02) 9281 9384 |
Victoria David Muffet Ph. (03) 9285 7171 Fx. (03) 9285 7178 |
| Queensland Bob Longland Ph. (07) 3834 3400 Fx. (07) 3831 7223 |
Western Australia Andrew Moyes Ph. (08) 9470 7299 Fx. (08) 9472 3551 |
| South Australia Geoff Halsey Ph. (08) 8237 6555 Fx. (08) 8231 2664 |
Tasmania Alex Stanelos Ph. (03) 6235 0500 Fx. (03) 6234 4268 |
| Northern Territory Bill Shepheard Ph. (08) 8982 8000 Fx. (08) 8981 7964 |
The AEC produces a range of information materials for political parties, journalists and other people interested in the electoral process. These are available from all AEC Offices and the website.
