Redistributions of electoral boundaries

Since the 1996 Federal Election, there have been changes, or redistributions, of electoral boundaries in Western Australia, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory.

The redistribution of electoral boundaries in Western Australia was triggered in April 1996 under the ‘seven year rule’ and was covered in Electoral Newsfile numbers 59 and 61.

In February 1997, the Electoral Commissioner, Mr Bill Gray, determined that the representation entitlements of Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory would change due to shifts in the population. This was the first stage of the redistribution of electoral boundaries in Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory. More details on these redistributions are available in Electoral Newsfile numbers 62, 63, 64, 68 and 69. Divisional and State maps of the new boundaries are available for purchase from the AEC. In addition, a national boundaries map is in preparation and will be distributed with the next issue of Electoral Newsfile.

Notional seat status

Following the conclusion of the redistribution process, the AEC has calculated the seat status of the new electoral Divisions, ie which party would have won the seats on the new boundaries had the 1996 voting patterns been repeated. These calculations will be used within the AEC’s computer network at the next election, and in particular on election night, in order to determine swings. For example, votes received by candidates contesting the next federal election in Queensland will be compared against estimated votes following the redistribution and not those votes obtained at the 1996 election (or any subsequent by-election).

How is status defined?

Seat status is based on the two-party preferred vote (TPP). The two-party preferred vote refers to the number of votes received by the leading Labor and Liberal/National Party candidates after a full distribution of preferences.

By convention, when a party receives less than 56% of the vote the seat is classified as ‘marginal’ (M); between 56-59% it is classified as ‘fairly safe’ (FS) and more than 60% is considered ‘safe’ (S).

Note that the seats of Kalgoorlie (WA), Moore (WA), Curtin (WA) and Oxley (QLD) are currently held by independents. In these cases, the seat status is shown on a TPP basis as either LP or ALP so that State totals showing the balance between the coalition and the ALP (ie who would form Government) can be calculated. Naturally, these tables which show a notional TPP do not preclude an independent candidate winning a seat at the next election.

How is the TPP calculated after a redistribution?

The estimated voting pattern of a redistributed electoral Division is calculated by adjusting the percentage of votes cast at each polling place to take account of the position of the new boundaries.

Estimated two-party preferred (%)

	1996 Election			1997 Post-redistribution
QLD	ALP	LP/NP	Status	ALP	LP/NP	Status
Blair	-	-	-	31.36	68.64	S/LP
Bowman	49.11	50.89	M/LP	49.11	50.89	M/LP
Brisbane	50.36	49.64	M/ALP	50.66	49.34	M/ALP
Capricornia	46.38	53.62	M/NP	46.55	53.45	M/NP
Dawson	40.08	59.92	FS/NP	39.15	60.85	S/NP
Dickson	46.83	53.17	M/LP	46.10	53.90	M/LP
Fadden	32.16	67.84	S/LP	32.46	67.54	S/LP
Fairfax	31.91	68.09	S/LP	32.39	67.61	S/LP
Fisher	29.66	70.34	S/LP	29.36	70.64	S/LP
Forde	40.30	59.70	FS/LP	38.00	62.00	S/LP
Griffith	48.53	51.47	M/LP	48.53	51.47	M/LP
Groom	28.72	71.28	S/LP	28.71	71.29	S/LP
Herbert	43.41	56.59	FS/LP	43.38	56.62	FS/LP
Hinkler	39.64	60.36	S/NP	42.06	57.94	FS/NP
Kennedy	35.51	64.49	S/NP	35.85	64.15	S/NP
Leichhardt	45.82	54.18	M/LP	45.43	54.57	M/LP
Lilley	49.27	50.73	M/LP	49.62	50.38	M/LP
Longman	38.41	61.59	S/LP	40.09	59.91	FS/LP
McPherson	33.00	67.00	S/LP	33.00	67.00	S/LP
Maranoa	24.27	75.73	S/NP	28.51	71.49	S/NP
Moncrieff	29.75	70.25	S/LP	29.55	70.45	S/LP
Moreton	44.91	55.09	M/LP	44.02	55.98	M/LP
Oxley	45.34	54.66	M/LP*	50.35	49.65	M/ALP
Petrie	42.30	57.70	FS/LP	41.72	58.28	FS/LP
Rankin	51.35	48.65	M/ALP	49.62	50.38	M/LP
Ryan	33.13	66.87	S/LP	33.02	66.98	S/LP
Wide Bay	31.47	68.53	S/NP	31.82	68.18	S/NP
QLD Total	39.78	60.22		39.78	60.22

Estimated two-party preferred (%)

	1996 Election			1997 Post-redistribution
WA	ALP	LP/NP	Status	ALP	LP/NP	Status
Brand	50.23	49.77	M/ALP	51.12	48.88	M/ALP
Canning	49.31	50.69	M/LP	48.68	51.32	M/LP
Cowan	47.61	52.39	M/LP	45.70	54.30	M/LP
Curtin	35.95	64.05	S/LP*	36.80	63.20	S/LP
Forrest	36.36	63.64	S/LP	35.91	64.09	S/LP
Fremantle	54.25	45.75	M/ALP	54.23	45.77	M/ALP
Kalgoorlie	53.36	46.64	M/ALP*	50.72	49.28	M/ALP
Moore	41.82	58.18	FS/LP*	41.49	58.51	FS/LP
O'Connor	24.07	75.93	S/LP	28.89	71.11	S/LP
Pearce	37.82	62.18	S/LP	36.13	63.87	S/LP
Perth	56.46	43.54	FS/ALP	56.66	43.34	FS/ALP
Stirling	44.83	55.17	M/LP	46.67	53.33	M/LP
Swan	46.29	53.71	M/LP	46.32	53.68	M/LP
Tangney	37.87	62.13	S/LP	38.10	61.90	S/LP
WA Total	44.00	56.00		44.00	56.00

Estimated first preference votes (%)

	1996 Election			1997 Post-redistribution
ACT	ALP	LP/NP	Status	ALP	LP/NP	Status
Canberra	57.52	42.48	FS/ALP	52.32	47.68	M/ALP
Fraser	57.32	42.68	FS/ALP	58.85	41.15	FS/ALP
Namadgi	51.51	48.49	M/ALP	-	-	-
ACT Total	55.46	44.54		55.46	44.54

Estimated first preference votes (%)

QLD	ALP	LP	NP	DEM	OTH
Blair	25.47	45.88	17.16	5.76	5.73
Bowman	42.13	46.53	0.00	8.37	2.97
Brisbane	38.63	44.07	0.48	8.83	7.98
Capricornia	40.28	22.87	28.66	5.29	2.91
Dawson	34.71	24.27	36.15	3.88	0.99
Dickson	39.34	41.78	6.70	6.04	6.14
Fadden	26.26	60.42	0.05	9.81	3.47
Fairfax	24.55	43.86	17.07	8.15	6.37
Fisher	23.25	57.08	8.40	5.69	5.58
Forde	31.78	42.45	14.42	7.97	3.37
Griffith	41.34	43.78	3.71	6.21	4.97
Groom	22.12	58.06	7.20	5.67	6.95
Herbert	36.55	38.63	15.31	5.94	3.56
Hinkler	38.25	0.61	52.66	5.15	3.33
Kennedy	29.47	3.25	56.68	6.57	4.02
Leichhardt	38.45	32.09	19.59	4.78	5.09
Lilley	43.14	46.10	0.00	6.62	4.13
Longman	32.15	40.20	14.20	7.52	5.94
McPherson	26.17	61.57	0.00	6.44	5.82
Maranoa	23.97	0.92	66.67	5.96	2.48
Moncrieff	22.68	64.97	0.00	5.18	7.16
Moreton	35.94	50.88	0.00	6.89	6.29
Oxley	43.95	43.45	0.00	6.62	5.98
Petrie	36.06	51.56	0.21	6.51	5.66
Rankin	42.57	42.58	0.96	8.59	5.29
Ryan	25.34	59.57	0.00	9.98	5.11
Wide Bay	27.38	0.49	59.25	6.92	5.97
QLD Total	33.17	39.29	15.92	6.70	4.92

Estimated first preference votes (%)

WA	ALP	LP	NP	DEM	OTH
Brand	44.38	41.72	0.65	3.77	9.48
Canning	40.57	44.66	0.12	5.88	8.77
Cowan	39.65	45.27	0.00	7.33	7.75
Curtin	20.49	42.01	0.00	4.42	33.08
Forrest	28.70	57.13	0.00	5.12	9.05
Fremantle	46.73	40.53	0.00	5.87	6.87
Kalgoorlie	33.73	26.61	1.19	2.18	36.29
Moore	29.62	26.33	0.00	4.63	39.42
O'Connor	23.10	53.40	15.31	3.29	4.89
Pearce	27.61	55.01	0.77	9.65	6.96
Perth	47.26	38.31	0.00	6.31	8.11
Stirling	38.17	45.10	0.00	5.22	11.52
Swan	37.01	42.78	0.00	5.79	14.43
Tangney	30.86	54.92	0.00	8.58	5.63
WA Total	34.73	44.02	1.33	5.58	14.34

Estimated first preference votes (%)

ACT	ALP	LP	NP	DEM	OTH
Canberra	45.51	43.82	0.00	0.00	10.68
Fraser	50.52	37.79	0.00	0.00	11.69
ACT Total	47.91	40.92	0.00	0.00	11.16

Seats by State*

Queensland	1996 Election	1997 Redistribution
ALP	2	2
LP/NP	23	25
IND	1	-
Western Australia
ALP	3	4
LP/NP	8	10
IND	3	-
Australian Capital Territory
ALP	3	2
LP/NP	0	0

* Note that the column for the 1996 election shows who actually won seats and includes independents in Queensland and Western Australia. The post-redistribution column shows notional seat status on a two-party preferred basis and therefore does not identify any independent seats.

AEC contacts

Central Office

Electoral Commissioner:
Bill Gray (02) 6271 4400
Deputy Electoral Commissioner:
Andy Becker (02) 6271 4410
Director, Information:
Brien Hallett (02) 6271 4415
Assistant Directors, Information:
Bernadette O’Meara (02) 6271 4548
Ian Stringall (Acting) (02) 6271 4431
Editor, Newsfile:
Margaret Meneghel (02) 6271 4505

State/Territory Head Offices

Australian Electoral Officers may be contacted on the following numbers:
New South Wales
Frances Howat Ph. (02) 9375 6333 Fx. (02) 9281 9384
Victoria
David Muffet Ph. (03) 9285 7171 Fx. (03) 9285 7178
Queensland
Bob Longland Ph. (07) 3834 3400 Fx. (07) 3831 7223
Western Australia
Bill Elkins (Acting) Ph. (08) 9470 7299 Fx. (08) 9472 3551
South Australia
Geoff Halsey Ph. (08) 8237 6555 Fx. (08) 8231 2664
Tasmania
Nick Tall Ph. (03) 6235 0500 Fx. (03) 6234 4268
Northern Territory
Kerry Heisner Ph. (08) 8981 1477 Fx. (08) 8981 7964