Enrolment projections - Victorian federal redistribution

Updated: 27 October 2017

Projected enrolment quota

The projected enrolment quota is calculated by dividing the projected number of people enrolled in Victoria at the projection time by the number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled.

Estimated total number of electors enrolled in Victoria at the projection time (Sunday 25 August 2019) 4,194,146
Number of members of the House of Representatives to which Victoria is entitled 38
Projected enrolment quota for Victoria 110,372
Permissible maximum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota + 3.5%) 114,235
Permissible minimum number of electors in an electoral division at the projection time (projected enrolment quota – 3.5%) 106,509

Enrolment projections for Victoria: by electoral division, SA2 and SA1

Enrolment projections as at Sunday 25 August 2019 for each electoral division in Victoria by Statistical Area 2 (SA2) and Statistical Area 1 (SA1). The percentage growth is also indicated.

Please note the Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2) is an area defined in the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS), and consists of one or more whole Statistical Areas Level 1 (SA1s). Wherever possible SA2s are based on officially gazetted State/Territory suburbs and localities. In urban areas SA2s largely conform to whole suburbs and combinations of whole suburbs, while in rural areas they define functional zones of social and economic links. Geography is also taken into account in SA2 design.

The SA1s and SA2s used for this redistribution are those which applied at the 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

Appendix 1: Victoria small area population projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used for producing population and enrolment projections for all Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) in Victoria, from June 2017 to June 2020.

Appendix 2: Projection methods for Victoria, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s) – more details

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gives a more detailed breakdown of the three tiered approach outlined in Appendix 1. The report outlines projection methods for Victoria, Statistical Area 2s (SA2s) and Statistical Area 1s (SA1s).

Appendix 3: Conversion of Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Population Projections to Enrolment Projections

This appendix, provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, outlines the process used to calculate enrolment projections for each Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1).

Differences between federal and state/territory electoral rolls

There is a federal electoral roll and an electoral roll for each state and territory. This is because each jurisdiction in Australia has their own electoral legislation, with electors subject to both federal and state/territory legislative requirements which may differ. It is these legislative differences which cause roll divergence. The causes of roll divergence can be categorised into two types:

Either type of divergence may result in an elector being enrolled for electoral events at one government level but not the other, or enrolled at different addresses for different levels of government.

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